A Warning for Keir Starmer from His Own Past: Without Boldness regarding Brexit and Europe, Your Party Challengers Might Be.

Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.